Evaluate the view that valence factors are the most important factors determining voting behaviour

Valence issues are when there isn’t significant disagreement between parties and therefore voters choose based on which party they think is going to be the most effective in government. Leadership and competence are key to this. This essay will accept the view that valence factors are the most important factors determining voting behaviour in UK elections.

The public image of party leaders has become more important in recent decades as politics has become increasingly personalised, especially since the growth of digital and social media. Where visual images and personalities are highly important. Commentators have talked about the presidentialisation of British politics since the 1979 election, with the suggestion being that UK campaigns are increasingly shaped by voter’s perceptions of leading public figures, as they are in the USA.  For example, during the 1997 election the electorate saw Major as ancient and out of date, his party had their fair share of sexual scandals and Major had failed to ever hold his MPs accountable for their misdemeanours whereas Blair aided the ‘Cool Britannia’ image. He was a fresh, young face that was a strong asset to the redefined labour party. This shows that parties appreciate the importance of presenting their leaders in a good light, with attention given to photo opportunities that will show a ‘human touch’, as well as leaders’ debates. Leaders with charisma attract wavering voters to vote for the party, furthermore, they also act in petition for funds and donations in order to contest in elections and achieve success.

However, rather than voting based on the leadership and personnel of political parties, it can be argued that voters care far more about the policies they are putting forward, and how these would affect the electorate if implemented. Rational choice theory is the idea that voters behave like consumers by looking at the available options and evaluating which is the most beneficial for them. This is linked to the growth of a more educated electorate, especially with the rise of the internet and the abundance of information online. For example, this explains why many younger voters chose Corbyn in the 2017 and 2019 elections, as one of his key policies was abolishing university tuition fees. Issue based voting is similar to the rational choice theory, however it mainly suggests that voters choose on which party is closest to them on the policy they deem the most important, even if they are not aligned with the party’s other policies. The 2019 election was a key example of this. 74% of leave voters voted for the Tories (including many in the red wall constituencies who had never done so before), whilst 50% of remain voters coted labour. This shows that issue-based voting and the rational choice theory can be seen as particularly important when there are stark policy differences between political parties.

Overall, even though both leadership and rational choice/issue based voting are key factors in determining voting behaviour, leadership is now arguably more important, especially with left wing/centrist parties like labour and the lib dems moving closer to tory values- there is little policy difference between parties.

It can be argued that the more short-term issues and events that arise during a campaign are more influential in how voters decide. During the campaign, parties publish their manifestos and make active efforts on the ground/in the media to win over voters, including spending significant amounts of money on advertising or appearing in TV interviews and debates. It can be argued that many voters only pay attention to politics during election campaigns and they can therefore ben seen as highly important to election results, especially if key events happen during them. For example, in the 2017 election campaign, a key moment was when Theresa May announced plans to change social care so that those receiving car at home would also have to contribute to the cost of their care. This was dubbed by the media as the ‘dementia tax’ and received a massive backlash. The damage to the conservative party inevitably led them to dropping this policy within 24hrs of announcing it. This shows that campaigns can turn seemingly decisive party leaders into the most unpopular people due to their appeal to the public.

However, how competent voters perceive the current government to be is a key factor determining how they vote. In an election, they are able to pass judgement on the government’s performance in power and replace them in they’re deemed to be incompetent. For example, competence was an important factor in the 1979 election, when labour was voted out due to the perception they were unable to manage the economy and trade unions after they produced the ‘winter of discontent’. Their attempts to impose a 5% limit on pay increases led to widespread strikes and a sense of national paralysis. This provided the conservatives with an irresistible theme: that the country needed a new direction and a government that could grapple with economic and social breakdown. They utilised the slogan ‘labour isn’t working’ in their campaigns. this shows that if a party is presented and seen as unfit to govern by many, they are unlikely to win an election.  

Therefore, it is clear that valence factors are the most important factors in determining voting behaviour because of perceived competence. The importance of campaigns is seemingly limited, as voters have often already made up their mind having evaluated the performance of the government since the previous election.

Rather than voting based on aspects of parties that change, such as leadership and perceived competence, it can be argued that the electorate often vote for a particular party irrespective of these factors. This is especially the case when there are significant policy differences between the parties, as different policies appeal very differently to different parts of the population. Social factors are key to understanding this. For example, up until the early 1970s voting behaviour was strongly influenced by class and social status. Today, age can be seen as a key determinant of voting behaviour. In 2017, YouGov called it the new dividing line in British politics. Older voters are much more likely to vote Conservative, whilst younger voters find labour best suited because of the ‘left wing’ approach. In 2019, 22% of 18-29 year olds voted conservative, compared to over 60% of 60+ year olds. Proof of this can be seen in the conservative party’s domination over elections in the 21st century. Turnout is much higher amongst older voters, therefore benefitting the Tories.

However, this argument is weak as since the 1970s and 80s ‘partisan dealignment’ has occurred, which can be seen as increasing the influence of valence factors. In the post WW2 period, voters had strong affiliations with and attachment to political parties, which were part of voters’ identities. This was influenced by family tradition, class, the workplace, and the community. These attachments have continued to decline in the 21st century. There are now a lot more swing voters who are comfortable voting for any party (including rising minor parties) and decide each election. This can be seen in the large number of voters in the traditionally labour ‘red wall’ switching to the conservatives for the first time in 2019. In this context, valence factors can be seen as the most important factors in determining voting behaviour as voters feel comfortable voting for either of the main parties and therefore vote based on changing factors within these parties. This included leadership and perceived competence.

overall, social factors are certainly less important determinants of voting behaviour than they used to be when class was central. In light of class/parliament dealignment, valence factors including leadership and competence are more important than ever.

In conclusion, valence factors have certainly increased as determinants of voting behaviour as class allegiances and partisanship have declined in importance. In elections where the policy differences between the parties are limited, such as 2010 and 2015, leadership and competence are now the most important factors in swaying the electorate.  If a leader isn’t seen as eligible enough to be the prime minister, then they will have no support from the media and be painted as a clown. Furthermore, they will be able to make their party united, creating a strong and stable government with no internal conflict.

Nora