Evaluate the view that the media has a decisive impact on the outcome of elections

After the 1992 surprise Conservative victory, the Sun’s headline the following day was “It's The Sun Wot Won It” claiming to have the deciding influence on the public. By “decisive” what is meant is that the media has the power to decide who wins the election. While the media does have a significant impact on the election, declining uses of the print and televised media, the message itself and the media having less of an effect means that their effect is not decisive.

Firstly, the use of traditional media has decreased with the viewership for TV broadcasts decreasing and the readership of print media also declining. For example, the Sun’s readership went from 4 million in 1997 to just over a million in 2020 and this trend has occurred for all newspapers. Similarly, the viewership of BBC news has decreased from 25 million to 18 million in the 21st century. Due to increasing voter apathy, the media will have less of an effect as it is reaching a fewer number of people to influence. There are arguments that both TV and print media remain a dominant force in influencing election results. For example, Blair made a clear point of appeasing Murdock, the owner of the Sun newspaper, to ensure he had the Sun’s support in 1997, suggesting that the print media had a significant impact as Blair chose to spend time and resources doing this. Furthermore, TV and print media investigate politicians and are responsible for changing election results by revealing scandals. For example, Sky News picked up on Gordon Brown calling a Labour voter a “bigoted woman” and portrayed that Gordon Brown was out of touch and the Guardian’s finding of the “cash-for-questions” affair which undermined Major’s “back to basics” campaign. Due to newspapers and TV broadcasters having the funding to investigate politicians, they can often find scandals that significantly impact the outcome of elections and the time that some politicians have spent trying to appease the print media suggests they are impactful. However, both the print and broadcast media’s impact continues to become less decisive a fewer voters are influenced by their work.

Policies and strong leadership have more of an impact on the outcome of elections. For example, Boris Johnson’s clear pledge to “get Brexit done” in comparison to Corbyn’s lack of clarity over the referendum result contributed to the Conservative majority rather than how the media portrayed the two leaders. Theresa May’s policy for social care backfired as the media labelled it as a “dementia tax.” While this policy was portrayed negatively in the media, this was purely a reflection of the unpopular nature of a policy where people with serious illnesses have to pay for their care, and the policy itself is the cause of a weakening election campaign. Similarly, May’s awkward presenting style meant that support for the Conservatives declined over the campaign as she was labelled the “Maybot” due to her repetitive and robotic nature. It could be argued that the media significantly amplifies specific policies and leaders, increasing their effect. For example, the TV debates magnified Ed Miliband’s undesirable traits, such as when he was booed off stage for failing to admit that Labour made a mistake with the economy between 2007-10. Furthermore, politicians can play up to the media such as when Cameron used Liam Byrne’s departing note in the Treasury that there was “no money left,” as a prop in future elections. However, ultimately, the party leaders and policies have the decisive influence, and the media only represents these to the public, rather than significantly changing their effect.

Social and economic factors can also have a decisive effect on the election result. For example, in the 2019 election, Boris Johnson’s decisive impact was the shift in voting in certain demographics rather than the media. For instance, in 2017, the social classes D and E (working class) voted 47% of Labour compared to 39% in 2019 meaning that Conservative’s gained in the “Red Wall” seats that ultimately led to their significant majority. Demographic groups by age are shown to have a big impact on election results, with every ten years older leading to 8-9% more likelihood of that person voting for the Conservatives. Therefore, with age having such a big influence on voting behaviour policy is often focused towards certain areas where votes can be gained such as having free tuition as a policy by Labour in 2017 to attract even more young voters. The media is still important here as younger voters are more influenced by social media and therefore is an echo chamber of views, while older voters have been shown to read print media. However, overall, demographics determine which media voters consume and therefore the media portrays what that demographic wants to consume. Therefore, the decisions of certain demographics have more of an impact on the outcome of elections than the media.

To conclude, the media no longer has a decisive impact on the outcome of elections. The impact of the media has declined through the decreased use of broadcast and print media with voters instead influenced more by the policies and leadership of politicians as well as their own demographics. In the future, the influence of the media will likely continue to decrease as voters focus on how politicians deal with certain issues rather than how the media portrays them.

Thomas Groves